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A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win votes in the Electoral College, short of the he needs.
And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms.
In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in It also correctly predicted the outcome inwhen Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election. The study will be published this month in PS: It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately. In Colorado, which went for Obama inthe model predicts that Romney will receive The authors also provided caveats.
Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov.
A second factor is that states very close to a split may fall an unexpected direction. I find that heartening for our democracy.Nov 12, · Virginia’s Republican candidate for governor, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, was edged by Democrat Terry McAuliffe percent.
These statistics may tell the story of those gubernatorial elections, but the numbers and are perhaps more important for the presidential election. Five Republican candidates for president are here on this Labor Day, to appear at a forum hosted by the conservative South Carolina Republican Senator Jim DeMint.
He is a Tea Party favorite. This is a state that likes to say Iowa and New Hampshire winnow the Republican presidential field. Nov 14, · On Nov. 6, , the Magnolia State stayed essentially true to its near four-decade form.
Looking at margins of victory for both candidates, Mississippi’s is 20th from the smallest. Gendered campaign tweets: The cases of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
The use of social media by presidential candidates and its impact on candidate salience. Government Information Quarterly, 29 (), Effects of presentation format and readers’ need for . The runaway British hit CALL THE MIDWIFE, a new drama that depicts midwifery in s London, kicks off the PBS fall season with a six-part Sunday-night run that begins September Data Mining in US Presidential Election Campaign.
global business, sports, entertainment and marketing. As has been observed many times in the past, the winning candidate in presidential elections in the US is often the candidate with the more compelling campaign.